1. Operation & Strategic Context
Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, its most significant direct military strike since the Iran–Iraq War, deploying over 200 fighter jets to target Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. This aggressive maneuver was grounded in the Begin Doctrine, Israel’s long-standing strategic policy asserting the right to preemptively eliminate existential threats—first demonstrated during the 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor.
Intelligence had revealed Iran had enriched 400 kg of uranium to 60% purity, sufficient to produce 9–15 nuclear warheads within days, marking a clear red line for Israel’s national security apparatus.
2. Execution & Mossad’s Parallel Operations
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) executed five precise airstrike waves, deploying over 330 precision munitions across 100+ key nuclear and military targets. Alongside the aerial campaign, Mossad conducted a covert sabotage operation—smuggling weapons, disabling Iranian radar systems, and establishing drone bases near Tehran, thereby ensuring aerial superiority and confusion within Iranian defense networks.
3. Weapons, Delivery Systems & Tactics
Israel employed deep-penetration bunker busters and air-to-ground Rampage missiles, primarily launched via F-35I Adir stealth fighters, enabling the IDF to strike fortified targets with surgical precision. These capabilities allowed the operation to reach deep into Tehran and other hardened Iranian locations.
4. Key Targets & Impact
Strikes targeted core nuclear sites such as Natanz, Khondab, and Khorramabad, as well as strategic military infrastructure in Tehran, including:
- IRGC headquarters
- Missile factories
- Residences of top military commanders and nuclear scientists
High-profile casualties reportedly included:
- IRGC commander Hossein Salam
- Chief of Staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri
- Commander Gholamali Rashid
- 6–10 nuclear scientists, including Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Tehranchi
5. Defence Gaps & Iranian Vulnerabilities
The operation exposed critical weaknesses in Iran’s defense system—aging radar technology, poor coordination, and inadequate air defense infrastructure. Mossad’s sabotage was instrumental in exploiting these vulnerabilities, allowing Israel to conduct deep-penetration strikes with minimal resistance.
6. Iranian Response
In the immediate aftermath, Iran confirmed high-level deaths, launched 100 drones toward Israel (all intercepted), and declared national mourning. Tehran also vowed “bitter, painful” retaliation, heightening fears of regional escalation.
7. Economic & Regional Fallout
The operation caused a 7–9% spike in global oil prices (Brent crude nearing $75–78/barrel), disrupted regional airspaces, and spooked Asian markets, with a 1–1.5% decline observed. Global leaders issued urgent warnings over the potential for a broader Middle East war.
Strategic Ripple Effects: Pakistan in the Crosshairs
While the operation targeted Iran, its strategic implications extend far beyond, especially toward Pakistan—a country now caught in the potential crossfire of a broader regional recalibration.
8. The Israeli-Indian Axis and Pakistan’s Dilemma
At the heart of this shift lies the deepening Israeli-Indian military-industrial integration, covering:
- Joint technological advancement
- Shared drone and missile programs
- Non-kinetic and sub-conventional operational overlap
This axis has moved beyond theory. During the recent Pakistan-India standoff, Israeli drone operators were reportedly active on-ground, running surveillance and strike operations in support of Indian forces.
9. Mossad-RAW Subversion in Baluchistan
Mossad, in collaboration with India’s RAW, is allegedly funneling weapons, drones, and assets into Baluchistan via the Pakistan-Iran border, targeting Pakistan’s underbelly. This includes:
- Spike missile systems
- Drone operations and electronic warfare tactics
- Deployment of Mossad assets within Pakistan’s southwestern theatre
The recent formation of a PKK-BLA nexus, weaponized against Turkiye and Pakistan, is being leveraged to create a sub-conventional front—with Tel Aviv’s blessing and strategic guidance.
10. Strategic Air Corridor & Future Warfront
One of the enabling factors for Israel’s boldness is its established air corridor across Syria–Iraq–Iran, which now potentially extends toward Pakistan—should escalation require a broader kinetic reach.
This corridor provides freedom of movement and operational flexibility for future missions, be they strategic bombings, intelligence operations, or support to allied forces.
11. U.S.-Israel Pressure on Pakistan’s Missile Program
Adding to the pressure, Tel Aviv has influenced Washington’s escalating sanctions against Pakistan’s strategic assets, notably:
- Sanctions on Pakistan’s National Development Complex
- Calls to limit Islamabad’s missile development and deterrence capability
This pre-emptive strategic posturing hints at a potential collision course between Israel and Pakistan in the coming years.
12. A Potential Two-Front Challenge for Pakistan
If Tehran collapses—whether into chaos (à la Libya/Syria/Iraq) or under a new pro-Israel regime—Pakistan may face the specter of a two-front war, not necessarily in a conventional sense but:
- Strategic (threats to deterrence)
- Operational (proxy warfare via borders)
- Sub-tactical (sabotage, internal unrest)
- Sub-conventional (terror networks, separatist movements)
Even without kinetic escalation, Israel and its allies may gain leverage over Islamabad to enforce unfavorable diplomatic or security concessions.
13. Conclusion: Pakistan’s Strategic Crossroads
While the spotlight is on Tehran, Islamabad cannot afford complacency. The regional chessboard is shifting, with Israel’s Operation Rising Lion not just about Iran—but a signal of projected power and evolving alliances. The lines are being drawn, and Pakistan’s strategic sovereignty may soon be tested on fronts it cannot ignore.
