Introduction: A New Century, A New Center
As the world inches toward 2050, it’s becoming clear that global power is no longer a transatlantic monopoly. The 21st century is witnessing a profound shift: away from Western dominance and toward a multipolar order, where China’s model of modernization — distinct from the West — is becoming increasingly attractive to the developing world.
In a striking analysis, Professor John L. Thornton, former President of Goldman Sachs and a seasoned expert on U.S.–China relations, outlines how China is reshaping the contours of global influence — not just economically, but ideologically. His reflections offer not only a critique of U.S. policy but also a blueprint for how countries like Pakistan can reimagine their own path to development.
The World by 2050: Inequality Will Define the Century
By 2050, the global population will surpass 10 billion, with much of this growth concentrated in Africa and South Asia. Countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, India, Ethiopia, and the DRC will see significant demographic expansion. Yet this increase will occur largely in poor or lower-middle-income nations, sharpening the divide between the global haves and have-nots.
Source: UN
In contrast, just two countries — the United States and China — are expected to control up to 60% of the world’s GDP. This extreme concentration of wealth and power, Thornton warns, will fuel crises across the board: migration, disease, extremism, and climate-driven instability.
A Dangerous Rivalry: U.S. vs. China
Despite the looming challenges, the U.S. and China are locked in a zero-sum geopolitical rivalry that Thornton compares to driving toward a cliff — eyes wide open. Instead of cooperation, both countries are leaning into ideological posturing and reactive policies. Nowhere is this clearer than in global responses to the Russia–Ukraine war. While the West mobilized sanctions and military aid, the rest of the world — including all of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East — largely abstained.
Source: RUSI
Western sanctions against Russia, initiated in February 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine, target its financial system, oil and gas sector, and individuals linked to President Putin. These sanctions aim to condemn and reverse Russia’s aggression. While some countries, led by the G7, have joined these efforts, many in the Global South have not, due to economic, geopolitical, and historical reasons, including suspicion of unilateral sanctions and anti-Western sentiments.
In response, the EU, US, and other allies are considering imposing restrictive measures against non-compliant countries or their companies to enforce compliance. This signals a fundamental truth: Western narratives no longer command global consensus.
China’s Modernization: A Model Without Imperialism?
At the core of Thornton’s argument is China’s desire to showcase an alternative path to development, one that does not require Westernization. Under Xi Jinping, “Chinese-style modernization” is rooted in five pillars:
- Peaceful development
- Common prosperity
- Harmony between man and nature
- Moral and cultural advancement
- A community of shared future
Unlike the U.S., China is not trying to export its political system. Rather, it is signaling to the Global South: You can modernize without mimicking the West. Thornton points out that 140+ countries now count China as their top trading partner, not through conquest, but connectivity. This is the story behind the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which the U.S. misread as an expansionist play when, in fact, it was initially proposed as a joint project. Here is a mapped out depiction of: How China Overtook the U.S. in Global Trade.
Source: Visual Capitalist
Governance and Meritocracy: A System that Works?
One of the most provocative comparisons Thornton makes is between the Chinese Communist Party and the U.S. military — both operate on strict internal hierarchies, discipline, and performance metrics.
- Top Chinese leaders often come from institutions like Tsinghua University.
- Career progression is based on results, not electoral theater.
This “meritocratic elite” contrasts sharply with the U.S. political system, where money, media optics, and populism often drive power.
Results Matter: From Rhetoric to Reality
Thornton cuts through ideological noise with a simple litmus test:
“Everyone wants world peace and prosperity — but can you deliver?”
On that front, China makes a compelling case. Its ability to lift 800 million people out of poverty, develop world-class infrastructure, and invest in global connectivity speaks volumes. The focus is on execution over intent — a lesson Western democracies, often bogged down by gridlock and partisanship, are struggling to match.
The Way Forward for Pakistan: Lessons from the New World Order
As a developing nation at the nexus of South and Central Asia, Pakistan cannot afford to be a spectator in this shifting global landscape. Thornton’s analysis offers key takeaways:
1. Balance Relationships, Donot Bet on Camps
Pakistan must resist the trap of Cold War-style alignment. Strategic neutrality with pragmatic engagement — especially in trade and infrastructure — should guide foreign policy.
2. Redefine Modernization on Local Terms
Rather than copying Western templates or relying on IMF handouts, Pakistan must pursue self-defined development goals rooted in social justice, environmental sustainability, and digital innovation.
3. Invest in Execution, Not Just Vision
Policies must move beyond slogans. China’s example shows that long-term progress comes from institutional consistency, local capacity building, and meritocratic governance — not simply regime change or donor dependency.
4. Reclaim the Narrative
Pakistan needs to shape its own modernization story. With its cultural depth, youth bulge, and strategic location, it can become a bridge between East and West, not a pawn between powers.
Conclusion: The Age of Imitation is Over
China’s rise is not just a challenge to the U.S.—it’s a challenge to a global imagination long monopolized by the West. In this moment of transition, Pakistan must ask itself: Will we remain trapped in borrowed paradigms, or will we chart our own course?
The world is watching. But more importantly, the future is arriving — fast.
