Navigating a Second Trump Presidency Amid Sino-American Tensions
With Donald J. Trump now firmly back in the Oval Office following his 2024 re-election, the global diplomatic landscape has entered a renewed phase of unpredictability, transactionalism, and polarisation. For Pakistan, the implications of a second Trump presidency are immediate, strategic, and deeply consequential, particularly as the country attempts to balance its historic alliance with China against evolving overtures from a more assertive Washington.
Trump’s return to power has not simply revived his previous foreign policy tendencies; it has amplified them. From renewed economic nationalism to aggressive containment of Chinese influence, the Trump administration’s approach to foreign affairs is once again shaped less by multilateral consensus and more by individual deals, selective alliances, and sharp binaries. In this context, Pakistan faces mounting pressure to clarify — or redefine — its diplomatic positioning.
A Pragmatic Opening or Tactical Engagement?
Trump’s second term began with unusual warmth toward Pakistan, including a high-profile White House luncheon for Pakistan’s Army Chief and coordinated counterterrorism cooperation in early 2025. That too, in the backdrop of the failed Operation Sindoor.
The gesture was interpreted by many observers as a pragmatic recalibration, acknowledging Pakistan’s evolving security role in the post-Afghanistan regional order and its assistance in detaining ISIS-K operatives wanted by U.S. authorities.
Yet, this engagement is far from unconditional goodwill. Trump’s personal diplomacy — transactional, optics-driven, and often short-lived—is characterised by short-term visibility but not necessarily long-term predictability. Within months of the high-level outreach, Pakistan’s public nomination of Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize—in recognition of his role in brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan during the May 2025 border crisis—quickly backfired, especially after Trump authorised strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Navigating between Beijing and Washington
At the core of Pakistan’s foreign policy challenges, exacerbated after the arrival of Trump 2.0, is the intensified U.S.–China rivalry. Trump has returned to office with a renewed focus on confronting Chinese influence, not just militarily or economically, but diplomatically, particularly targeting nations involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For Pakistan, where the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains a flagship infrastructure and energy initiative, this places the country in a diplomatically sensitive — and potentially punitive — position. Key pressures, mounted by the US, to this effect include;
- CPEC Scrutiny: The Trump administration is reportedly weighing economic penalties or diplomatic isolation for BRI partner states, especially where Chinese military or tech firms are involved. Pakistan could find its access to Western finance, technology, and markets constrained if it refuses to decouple.
- Trade and Aid Calculus: Trump has signalled his intent to reconfigure U.S. trade preferences, including potential tariffs or funding cuts to countries seen as strategically ambiguous. This may affect Pakistan’s access to U.S. markets or its leverage in future IMF negotiations, particularly if Washington uses its influence within global financial institutions as a tool of conditional diplomacy.
- Pressure to Align with Indo-Pacific Bloc: With Trump back in office, the White House is deepening its alignment with India and Australia under a rebranded Indo-Pacific Security Framework. Pakistan faces the risk of being cast as an outlier, or worse, a proxy of Beijing, despite its stated policy of neutrality.
India, Iran, and Regional Repercussions
Trump’s second term has also emboldened India’s strategic posture, with increased U.S. military and technological transfers further altering South Asia’s conventional balance. Simultaneously, the Trump administration’s confrontational stance against Iran, as demonstrated in the June 2025 airstrikes, has placed Pakistan in a regional bind.
Islamabad, which shares religious, cultural, and geographic proximity with Tehran, finds itself forced to publicly condemn Washington’s actions, even as it maintains back-channel military coordination. This balancing act is increasingly unsustainable, as any perception of siding with the U.S. over Iran or China risks igniting internal dissent, especially among Pakistan’s religious and nationalist blocs. Not to mention, alignment with the U.S. could harm ties with China and Iran as well.
Navigating the Trump Doctrine: Strategic Autonomy or Tactical Flexibility?
Trump’s foreign policy lacks ideological consistency but adheres to a few recurring themes: deal-making over doctrine, personal rapport over institutional memory, and rewarding transactional loyalty. While this may offer Pakistan short-term leverage, such as invitations to strategic dialogues or high-level visibility, it carries long-term risks of dependence, inconsistency, and reputational damage. To manage this reality, Pakistan must:
- Institutionalise Diplomacy: Strengthen foreign policy mechanisms, by mutual collaboration between the state institutions, to ensure long-term stability.
- Diversify Economic Engagement: Reduce overreliance on China and hedge against U.S. volatility by expanding trade with Gulf states, ASEAN, and African markets.
- Reassert Strategic Neutrality: Reinforce a policy of multi-alignment, maintaining partnerships with both East and West while avoiding direct entanglement in their rivalries.
- Engage in Narrative Diplomacy: Counter the perception of being a Chinese proxy or U.S. subordinate by investing in independent diplomatic messaging across Western and multilateral platforms.
Diplomatic Balance in a Fractured World
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has reconfigured global diplomacy into sharper binaries. For Pakistan, the challenge is to walk the tightrope between two great powers without sacrificing national autonomy or domestic stability.
While the Trump administration may offer momentary openings and high-profile engagements, its volatile and self-serving nature requires Islamabad to think long-term. Strategic patience, principled neutrality, and diversified alliances — not symbolic gestures or opportunistic alignments — will determine whether Pakistan survives this geopolitical turbulence with sovereignty intact and its regional standing preserved.
