The specter of the Wana Syndrome, a profound and enduring trauma of forced migration, once again haunts Pakistan’s newly merged districts. This region, still reeling from past conflicts, now faces a devastating second wave of internal displacement, driven relentlessly by the resurgent Fitna-al-Khawarij (FAK) and its affiliates.
This renewed crisis is not merely a consequence of violence; it is a calculated strategy of ideological control, brutal fear tactics, and economic coercion, systematically uprooting vulnerable populations and threatening the fragile peace and development of these critical areas.
The Relentless Resurgence of Factions
The FAK has re-emerged with chilling intensity since 2021. Its core objective remains the violent overthrow of the Pakistani government and the imposition of its rigid interpretation of Islamic law across the nation.
This resurgence has been significantly emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, providing the FAK with crucial cross-border sanctuary and renewed ideological impetus.
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Pakistan now grapples with a surge in militant violence, with 2024 witnessing approximately 444 attacks and 685 deaths among security forces, marking the highest casualty rate in nearly a decade.
Source: PICSS
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the epicenter of this renewed aggression, recorded 295 attacks in 2024; a 69% increase from the previous year, resulting in 509 fatalities. The FAK’s operational footprint has expanded beyond its traditional strongholds, reaching into southern Punjab and urban centers, ensuring a pervasive climate of fear.
Ideology, Terror, and Extortion
The FAK’s control mechanisms are multifaceted and deeply insidious. Its ideological indoctrination exploits existing governance and security vacuums, portraying the Pakistani state as corrupt and unjust and positioning itself as an alternative source of order and justice. This narrative, often disseminated through religious schools, targets economically vulnerable populations, drawing them into the militant fold.
Additionally, beyond ideological capture, the FAK employs brutal fear tactics. While specific instances of public beheadings are not widely detailed in recent reports, the group’s use of assassinations, bombings, military-style assaults, and suicide attacks is extensively documented.
The violence has escalated with greater ferocity and lethality against Pakistani security forces. Crucially, the FAK explicitly links public violence to economic coercion: if traders refuse extortion demands, militants plant bombs near their homes, and continued defiance can lead to public killings or the bombing of houses. This calculated application of terror ensures compliance and drives displacement.
Economic coercion forms the third pillar of FAK’s control. Widespread extortion rackets, demanding sums ranging from 1 million to 10 million Pakistani rupees, are a pervasive threat, particularly in Peshawar.
Source: Strategem
These threats are not idle; non-compliance leads to severe consequences, forcing business owners, doctors, and even parliamentarians to either pay exorbitant fees or flee. This systematic targeting of the economically productive segments of society results in significant capital flight and cripples regional development, creating a shadow economy and further entrenching the FAK’s illicit control.
The Second Wave: Targeted Displacement and Compounding Crises
This second wave of forced migration is characterized by its deliberate targeting of state loyalists and business owners. State loyalists perceived as impediments to the FAK’s objectives, face direct violence and coercion, often lacking adequate state protection in the prevailing governance vacuum.
Business owners are forced to abandon their livelihoods due to relentless extortion and the threat of violence, leaving them with no option but to flee. This strategic displacement removes potential sources of resistance and economic stability, creating a power vacuum for the FAK to exploit.
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The humanitarian consequences for these internally displaced persons are severe and compounding. They face a profound loss of identity, economic instability, and psychological trauma, often lacking formal identification documents that hinder access to essential services and employment.
Many prefer to stay with host families rather than in formal camps, highlighting the inadequacy of official responses and shifting the burden onto already strained communities. While some reports for 2024-2025 attribute new displacement waves in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to natural disasters like floods, the documented surge in FAK’s violence strongly implies a concurrent, if less formally quantified, conflict-induced displacement.
This creates a hybrid crisis, where populations already vulnerable to militant violence are disproportionately affected by climate shocks, further entrenching a cycle of protracted displacement.
Undermining Peace and Development
The FAK’s resurgence and the resulting displacement have profound implications for regional peace, stability, and development. The group’s relentless attacks on security forces directly challenge and erode state authority, deepening the existing governance vacuum in the NMDs. Public dissatisfaction with the Provincial Government’s inability to provide security and implement reforms, further alienates the populace, making them susceptible to militant narratives.
Economically, the conflict has devastated the region, disrupting food production, damaging infrastructure, and exacerbating food insecurity. A World Bank report indicated that conflict has reduced household incomes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by over 20% since 2019. The FAK’s extortion rackets actively sabotage legitimate economic activity, leading to capital flight and a precipitous decline in prosperity. This economic desperation, coupled with a lack of livelihood opportunities, fuels FAK recruitment, creating a vicious cycle.
Despite these overwhelming challenges, local resistance movements, such as the Pasoon protests, have emerged, demanding an end to insecurity, justice, and local control over resources. These courageous civilian-led actions offer a counter-narrative to militant control, yet they remain fragile, facing threats of targeted violence and a pervasive lack of trust in law enforcement.
Source: Dawn
The second wave of displacement, by forcing key community members to flee, inadvertently weakens the capacity for organized civilian resistance, further entrenching the cycle of violence and instability. The enduring crisis in the Newly Merged Districts demands a comprehensive, rights-based approach that addresses both the immediate security threats and the deep-seated socio-economic grievances to break this entrenched cycle of suffering.
