A recent report, based on interviews with military officials from both India and Pakistan, has shed new light on the hour-long air battle that took place in May, concluding that a critical intelligence failure was central to the downing of Indian aircraft. The report reveals that Indian pilots, flying state-of-the-art Rafale jets, were ambushed by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) due to a fundamental miscalculation about the range of a key Chinese-made missile in Pakistan’s arsenal.
The air battle, described by experts as the largest in decades involving an estimated 110 aircraft, marked a significant moment in modern air warfare. According to the investigation, the issue was not with the performance of the Western-made Rafale jets, but with a fatal flaw in Indian intelligence. The faulty information gave the Rafale pilots a false sense of security, leading them to believe they were operating outside of Pakistani firing distance.
A Fatal Miscalculation on Missile Range
Indian officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, revealed that their pilots were under the impression that the China-made PL-15 missile, fired from the PAF’s J-10C fighters, had a range of only around 150km. This was a widely cited range for the missile’s export variant. However, Pakistani officials stated that the PL-15 missile that hit the Rafale was fired from approximately 200km away, and even farther according to some Indian officials. Dawn reported:
Reuters interviews with two Indian officials and three of their Pakistani counterparts found that the performance of the Rafale wasn’t the key problem: central to its downing was an Indian intelligence failure concerning the range of the China-made PL-15 missile fired by the J-10 fighter. China and Pakistan are the only countries to operate both J-10s, known as Vigorous Dragons, and PL-15s. The faulty intelligence gave the Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence that they were out of Pakistani firing distance, which they believed was only around 150km, the Indian officials said, referring to the widely cited range of PL-15’s export variant.
A PAF official, in a statement to the report’s authors, declared, “We ambushed them.” The official explained that the Pakistani military not only had the element of surprise with its missile’s superior range but also conducted a comprehensive electronic warfare assault on India’s systems to confuse pilots and reduce their situational awareness. While Indian officials have disputed the effectiveness of these electronic measures, they have acknowledged that Pakistan appeared to have successfully disrupted the Russian-made Sukhoi aircraft, whose systems are now being upgraded.
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Justin Bronk, an air warfare expert at London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), confirmed this narrative, stating that “the Indians were not expecting to be shot at“. He noted that the PL-15 is “clearly very capable at long range,” and its use from an unexpected distance caught the Indian pilots off guard. The strike is now considered to be among the longest-range air-to-air strikes ever recorded, showcasing the effectiveness of Pakistan’s multi-domain operations.
Source: Dawn
The Role of a “Kill Chain” Network
The report further highlighted Pakistan’s tactical advantage, which was not limited to missile range. The PAF was able to more efficiently connect its military hardware to surveillance on the ground and in the air, creating a clearer picture of the battlefield. This network, including a Pakistani-developed system called “Data Link 17,” seamlessly connected Chinese military hardware with other equipment, including a Swedish-made surveillance plane.
This advanced system allowed the J-10C fighters flying closer to India to obtain radar feeds from a surveillance plane cruising further away. This enabled the Chinese-made fighters to turn off their own radars and fly largely undetected, giving them a critical element of surprise and a significant tactical edge. The success of this “kill chain” network demonstrates the effectiveness of Pakistan’s strategy in integrating its diverse military hardware, a capability that surprised many in the military community.
Source: Dawn
A Geopolitical Wake-Up Call
The incident has raised serious questions about the effectiveness of Western military hardware against untested Chinese alternatives and the quality of India’s intelligence gathering. While India has not officially acknowledged the downing of a Rafale, the French air chief and a top Dassault executive have reportedly seen evidence of the loss of the fighter and two other aircraft.
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In the aftermath of the skirmish, India’s Deputy Army Chief Lt. Gen. Rahul Singh accused Pakistan of receiving “live inputs from China,” implying radar and satellite feeds during the battles. This suggests that the intelligence failure was not just a simple miscalculation but a multi-layered problem, possibly involving a sophisticated network that India’s intelligence agencies had underestimated. The battle serves as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of modern warfare and the critical importance of superior situational awareness. The outcome of the skirmish, which started as a response to India’s strikes on what it called “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan, has now forced Delhi to re-evaluate its tactical and intelligence capabilities along the sensitive border.
