The New Great Game in the Arabian Sea: How Pakistan Navigates Naval Rivalry

The intensifying naval competition in the Arabian Sea, often termed the New Great Game, involves India’s aspiration for regional dominance and China’s strategic push to secure its economic interests. India’s aggressive naval expansion, including the development of an aircraft carrier fleet, aims to project power and control its “strategic backyard.” China’s growing presence, marked by its first overseas military base in Djibouti and the Gwadar Port development under CPEC, offers Beijing a vital foothold in the region to protect its sea lanes of communication.

Source: IISS

Pakistan, as a key player, navigates this complex environment by adopting an asymmetric strategy focused on sea denial. It cannot match the size of the Indian or Chinese fleets but instead invests in advanced, stealth-capable submarines and indigenously developed cruise missiles to pose a credible deterrent threat. By modernizing its fleet and strengthening alliances, particularly with China and Turkey, Pakistan aims to maintain a balance of power and ensure its maritime security in the face of this escalating rivalry.

The Intensifying Naval Competition

The Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea have emerged as a critical geostrategic arena due to their importance for global trade and energy security. India, viewing the Indian Ocean as its strategic backyard, is aggressively expanding its naval power. The Indian Navy’s modernization includes acquiring more submarines, frigates, and destroyers, and most notably, operating two aircraft carriers to project power far from its shores. This expansion is part of India’s larger Mission Based Deployments posture, which seeks to increase its presence at critical choke points and ingress/egress routes throughout the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Simultaneously, China is making a strategic push into the IOR, driven by its economic interests and the need to protect its sea lines of communication.  Beijing’s presence is characterized by anti-piracy operations, port calls, and the establishment of its first overseas military base in Djibouti. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the development of Pakistan’s Gwadar Port are central to this strategy, providing China with a potential naval foothold on the Arabian Sea. China’s growing footprint, including its delivery of advanced naval platforms to Pakistan, is a key element of its long-term strategy to counterbalance India’s maritime dominance.

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Pakistan’s Strategic Response

Pakistan’s naval strategy is primarily one of sea denial and asymmetric warfare against a numerically superior adversary. It cannot match India ship for ship, so its approach focuses on creating a layered defense that would make any naval offensive against its coast a high-risk gamble. This strategy hinges on three main pillars.

First, Naval Modernization is central to this strategy. Pakistan is rapidly upgrading its fleet with advanced, stealth-capable platforms. A key component is the acquisition of eight Hangor-class submarines from China, four of which will be built in Pakistan under a transfer of technology agreement. These submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), are designed for long endurance and stealth, complicating Indian anti-submarine warfare efforts. Pakistan is also acquiring modern frigates and has developed its indigenous cruise missiles like the Harbah, which can be launched from surface vessels and are capable of anti-ship and land-attack missions. The development of a sea-based nuclear capability with the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) further enhances Pakistan’s second-strike deterrence.

Strategic Alliances and Joint Exercises: Pakistan is strengthening its naval partnerships to enhance interoperability and strategic depth. Its long-standing alliance with China is critical, as seen in the transfer of naval technology and joint exercises. Beyond China, Pakistan is building stronger ties with Turkey. The recent first-ever bilateral amphibious exercise with Turkey underscores a growing defense partnership. These joint drills with allied navies, along with participation in multinational exercises like “AMAN,” are vital for sharing tactical expertise and projecting a collective presence in the region.

Leveraging Geographic and Asymmetric Advantages: Pakistan’s strategy also capitalizes on its geographic position and the inherent vulnerabilities of a larger fleet. Its coast is relatively short, allowing for concentrated defense using submarines, fast attack craft with cruise missiles, and coastal batteries. Pakistan’s naval doctrine focuses on sea denial, aiming to inflict enough damage on an attacking fleet to deter a full-scale assault. In a potential conflict, the sheer size of India’s maritime assets, from its coastline to its large warships, presents a “target-rich environment” for Pakistan’s submarine and missile forces, neutralizing India’s conventional superiority through the threat of significant losses.

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Conclusion

In conclusion, the naval dynamics in the Arabian Sea reflect a complex, three-way strategic contest. India’s pursuit of a blue-water navy, along with China’s expansion to secure its economic lifelines, has created a volatile security environment. Pakistan, unable to compete on a ship-for-ship basis, has wisely adopted an asymmetric strategy of sea denial. Through the acquisition of advanced submarines, indigenously developed cruise missiles, and strategic partnerships with allies like China and Turkey, Pakistan aims to neutralize the numerical superiority of its rivals. 

This layered defense, leveraging its geographic position and emphasizing deterrence, is designed to make any potential naval aggression a highly costly and high-risk endeavor, thereby safeguarding its maritime interests and maintaining a fragile balance of power in the region