BAGHDAD – Iraqis voted in parliamentary elections on November 11 amid low turnout of around 23%, casting ballots for 329 seats in a contest that could reshape the Shia-led power dynamics but is unlikely to deliver sweeping reforms. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (also known as Construction and Development) emerged as the frontrunner, projected to secure the most seats—potentially around 60—based on preliminary results and analyst forecasts. Yet, experts warn the broad alliance may fracture post-vote, jeopardizing al-Sudani’s bid for a second term under Iraq’s ethno-sectarian muhasasa system, where the premiership is decided by Shia consensus rather than sheer seat count.
Al-Sudani’s campaign emphasized stability: improved services, balanced ties with Tehran and Washington, and Iraq’s avoidance of regional spillover since the October 7, 2023, Israel-Hamas war. Formed in May 2025, his coalition unites seven factions, including Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Chairman Faleh al-Fayyad, Labour Minister Ahmed al-Asadi, Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi, tribal sheikhs, and 53 incumbent MPs—many 2021 independents or defectors from the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF). Al-Sudani’s own Al-Furratain Current, born from his post-2019 Tishreen protests resignation from the Dawa Party, remains its smallest component.
Polls have opened in Iraq, where voters will elect a new parliament and leader of the house in a vote that will be closely watched in Iran and the US.
🔗: https://t.co/vHOxf0rFvZ pic.twitter.com/L8YOgiDGKN
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) November 11, 2025
Coalition’s Fragile Foundations Observers in central and southern Iraq highlight the alliance’s transactional nature: tribal leaders and MPs leverage al-Sudani’s incumbency for local patronage, boasting feats like MP Dhiaa Hindi’s 16,000 processed transactions in Karbala. Yet, loyalty may evaporate once al-Sudani becomes a caretaker PM, echoing former PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s 2021 betrayal by 23 supported independents who demanded bribes during government formation. PMF’s al-Fayyad, shielded by al-Sudani from Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) rivals, may realign with SCF heavyweights like Qais al-Khazali.
The coalition’s “Construction” slogan, symbolized by a crane logo, spotlights Baghdad-centric projects—822 billion dinars ($629M) in H1 2025—while provincial funds plummeted 60% to 2.767 trillion dinars ($2.1B). Najaf received just 60 billion of its 500 billion dinar allocation, fueling resentment in SCF strongholds. Karbala’s 318 billion dinars ($243M) stands out, tied to Governor al-Khattabi’s inclusion.
SCF Rivals Circle SCF leaders like Nouri al-Maliki (State of Law) and al-Khazali (AAH) have signaled al-Sudani’s dispensability. Al-Khazali deemed a second term an “SCF decision,” while al-Maliki stressed seats don’t dictate the premiership. This counters al-Sudani’s independent push, viewed as challenging their “director-general” vision of the PM role. With Muqtada al-Sadr’s boycott sidelining his popular movement, the SCF—running fragmented lists—may reunite post-vote to block al-Sudani.
Sunni and Kurdish fragmentation—Taqaddum’s Mohammed al-Halbousi, Sovereignty’s Khamis al-Khanjar, Azm’s Muthanna al-Samarrai, and divided KDP/PUK—complicates coalition-building, potentially delaying government formation for months.
Outlook: Bargains Over Ballots Preliminary results are due within 48 hours, finals next week. Al-Sudani’s bloc leads but lacks a majority, forcing SCF negotiations where his leverage—tied to incumbency—may wane. Analysts predict a protracted muhasasa standoff, with youth disillusionment (60% of population) and low turnout signaling deeper reform demands. As al-Sudani casts his vote, pushing his wheelchair-bound mother, he embodies Iraq’s quest for stability amid entrenched patronage.
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