Overview: Exports vs. Food Security in Pakistan
Agriculture contributes roughly 23% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs about 37% of the labor force. It underpins exports of rice, cotton, fruit, fisheries, and vegetables, while domestic staples like wheat, sugarcane, and pulses address internal food needs. Yet as population booms and climate risks intensify, Pakistan faces sharp tensions between maximizing export earnings and ensuring affordable food at home.
On one hand, export revenues; such as the nearly 5.6 million tonnes of rice exported between July 2023 and May 2024 generating USD 3.6 billion have buoyed foreign exchange and supported economic resilience amid inflation and debt.
Source: Financial Times
On the other hand, domestic food inflation has soared, reaching 47% overall and up to 52% in rural areas, driven by supply shocks and currency depreciation.
Drivers of Domestic Pressure
Population Growth & Shifting Diets
Pakistan’s population currently stands at 240 million and is projected to rise to 403 million by 2050—potentially making Pakistan the third most populous country in the world. Meeting future food demand will require boosting output by at least 50% by 2050. Meanwhile, urbanization is increasing demand for perishables; vegetables, milk, fruit, which strains cold‑chain infrastructure that remains underdeveloped.
Source: Tribune
Climate Change
Pakistan is among the top five most climate‑vulnerable nations, experiencing an average of 152 extreme events per decade until 2018, causing annual losses of USD 3.8 billion. The 2022 floods alone affected 33 million people, destroyed over 2 million hectares of crops, and inflicted billions in losses. Temperature rises, each 1 °C potentially reducing wheat yields by up to 5–10%, and erratic monsoon timing exacerbate uncertainty.
Source: AA
Crops like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane are acutely vulnerable: for example, pink bollworm damage has cut Punjab cotton yields by up to 30%, heatwaves have slashed rice yields by 20%, and one heatwave in 2022 saw wheat yield losses of 15%.
Water Scarcity and Land Loss
Agriculture uses over 90% of Pakistan’s freshwater, mostly from the Indus but per‑capita water availability has dropped from 5,260 m³ in 1951 to under 1,000 m³ in 2023, crossing into scarcity. Canal inefficiencies, groundwater over‑extraction, and drought deepen the crisis; cotton and rice, being highly water‑intensive, magnify the problem. Urban conversion and industrialization have swallowed fertile land; 20–30% of Punjab’s farmland is lost in growing cities, reducing land available for staple cultivation.
The Export Strategy: Strengths and Risks
Rice
Pakistan is among the top five global rice exporters, its rice exports surged 60% year-on-year to nearly 5.6 million tonnes (USD 3.6 billion) in mid‑2024, at one point capturing 10% of global rice trade. This surge followed an Indian export ban, which gave Pakistan time to fill the gap in price‑sensitive markets, especially in Africa.
However, India fully lifted its rice export ban by early 2025, driving global rice prices down sharply and cutting Pakistan’s projected exports to 5.8 million tonnes, a decline of 11%. As buyers revert to cheaper Indian rice, Pakistani producers face tighter margins and export revenue declines.
Cotton
Cotton drives Pakistan’s textile exports; however, floods and pest outbreaks have cut yields. Sindh’s 2023 cotton output dropped 21% after severe monsoon damage. Cotton’s high water needs, vulnerability to climate shocks and pests, and export dependence on volatile markets expose a fragile balance.
Food Security: Why Export Focus Must Be Balanced
Pakistan periodically risks defaulting to net‑food import status if harvests falter, depending on the year, domestic shortfalls have forced wheat, pulses, and edible oil imports. Food inflation disproportionately affects low‑income households: malnutrition remains prevalent, with iron deficiency impacting nearly half of children under five. Economic inequality magnifies the impact of supply shocks. Climate‑induced crop failures and export‑oriented production can widen the gap between what is grown for external markets and what is available, and affordable, domestically.
Policy Pathways for Balancing Export Ambitions and Local Food Demands
Climate‑Smart Practices and Crop Resilience
Pakistan has begun adopting climate‑smart agriculture: drought‑ and flood‑tolerant seed varieties (e.g., Thar‑2023 millet in Sindh, flood‑tolerant rice like Swat‑1), drip irrigation systems, alternate wetting and drying (AWD) in rice, zero tillage, and raised beds. These innovations cut water use by up to 60%, reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions by 30–70% in rice, and boost yields under stress. AWD pilots, backed by the ADB and international partners, show promise, especially for rice-farming profitability and sustainability.
Source: The Friday Times
Institutional Reform & Trade Governance
Pakistan’s Land Information and Management System (LIMS), launched in 2023, uses GIS and satellite data to help farmers manage crops, water usage, and marketing, with explicit goals of boosting both food security and exports. The National Agri‑trade and Food Safety Authority (NAFSA), established in 2025, aligns export standards with global sanitary and phytosanitary protocols, improving access to developed export markets and reducing waste.
Responsible Export Management
Strategic export controls e.g. rice export bans in 2022 can temporarily relieve domestic food price pressures but also harm export income. Balanced, calibrated measures (targeted export quotas or minimum reserve mandates) could help ensure sufficient staple supply without full protectionism.
Diversifying Exports and Enhancing Value Chains
Moving exports from volume‑based commodities (e.g. broken rice, raw cotton) toward value-added processed goods (e.g. premium rice, textiles, mango products) helps earn more per unit while reducing pressures on land and water for raw bulk export.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s imperative to earn foreign exchange via agricultural exports, especially rice and cotton is understandable in a fragile economy. But unless exports are carefully aligned with domestic needs, climate vulnerabilities, and long-term resource limits, export-oriented growth risks aggravating food insecurity, malnutrition, and inequality.
Building climate-resilient agriculture, water-smart irrigation, seed innovation, digital land management, and modern export governance, while deploying strategic export management, offers a way to safeguard both domestic food supply and export growth. With population projected to grow by ~60% by 2050, and climate impacts already eroding productivity (expected to cut output by 8–10% by 2040), Pakistan must shift from short‑term export windfalls toward sustainable productivity enhancements, balancing export earnings and food security resilience.
