Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2024–25 presents a cautiously hopeful macroeconomic picture. It cites steady GDP growth, lower inflation, a fiscal surplus, and rising remittances. However, nearly half the population remains mired in poverty, and most households feel no real relief. This article critically analyzes why economic successes on paper fail to translate into everyday improvements.
Smooth Macro Indicators – What the Survey Shows
- The economy grew by 2.7% in FY2024–25, up from 2.5% in FY2023–24, though below the original 3.6% target.
- Inflation declined sharply from over 29% in 2023 to 4.6% in FY25, described in the report as a “fantastic story”.
- A current account surplus of $1.9 billion between July–April FY25 replaced a deficit.
- The government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 3.0% of GDP for July–March FY25, up from 1.5% the prior year.
These indicators reflect macro-level stabilization driven by IMF programmes and monetary easing.
Citizen Realities: What the Numbers Hide
Poverty Still Pervasive
Under the World Bank’s updated poverty line of $4.20 per day, 44.7% of Pakistanis—over 107 million people live in poverty. Meanwhle, Extreme poverty has surged to 16.5%, up from 4.9% under the former $2.15 line.
Joblessness and Informality
GDP growth of 2.7% is insufficient for a population that grows fast. Formal job creation remains weak. Public jobs and formal industries are limited. Many rely on casual, informal work.
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Inflation’s Hidden Bite
While headline CPI inflation is low, prices of staples, fuel, electricity, and rents remain high. The CPI does not fully reflect regional or consumption realities.
Remittance Gains Are Uneven
Although remittances help external stability, they reach only some households. They do little to generate local jobs or reduce rising costs.
Policy Disconnect: Why Prosperity Does not Spread
- Uneven Growth Distribution: Growth concentrated in services and industry. Agriculture, the livelihood for millions, grew slowly. Urban and business sectors gained more than the rural poor.
- Weak Social Safety Nets: Programs like Ehsaas/BISP serve millions, but fail to cover the most extreme poor. They lack local targeting and fast delivery.
- Taxation Hurts the Poor: Pakistan’s General Sales Tax (GST) is regressive. It disproportionately burdens low-income households, negating welfare efforts.
- Structural Weaknesses Remain: Revenue-to-GDP ratio stays low (~12–13%), limiting public services. Public debt still hovers around 65% of GDP despite slight improvements.
Policy Recommendations: Turning Macro Wins into Citizen Relief
Broaden & Deepen Social Protections
Expand Ehsaas/BISP. Use mobile payments and local data to target rural, informal poor. Scale up emergency cash and food support.
Prioritize Labour-Intensive Growth
Invest in agriculture-driven industries, SME clusters, vocational training. Focus public spending on sectors that hire youth and semi-skilled workers.
Tax Reform for Equity
Shift from blanket GST to income-based and sector-specific taxes. Increase FBR efficiency and reduce tax evasion. Use revenue to fund welfare and health.
Measure Real Cost of Living
Complement CPI with regional, household-based cost-of-living indices. Align subsidies and price controls with lived realities.
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Bridging the Gap: A New Economic Vision
The state needs to reconsider its development strategy in order to make sure that macroeconomic benefits are enjoyed by ordinary Pakistanis. Stabilisation is not enough. Pakistan requires a vision that focuses more on human welfare than only financial rectitude.
This implies investing in areas that affect people directly- healthcare education, housing and agriculture. It also needs to reset the priorities of public investment to invest less in elite-focused projects and more in inclusive growth. The government should enhance provincial coordination in line with the 18th Amendment, as this would enable local governments to provide the required public services.
The written budgets and directives of policies should be made through transparency, accountability, and input from the citizens. Unless these changes take place, surveys will continue to look good, but people will continue to struggle.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s economy may be stabilising, but people are still hurting. It’s time to move from numbers to impact. The real success of economic policy lies in reducing poverty, creating jobs, and improving daily life. Only then will the survey results match citizen realities.
