The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) today released provisional figures for the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year (FY26), announcing a robust 13 per cent increase in revenue collection year-on-year. The FBR collected Rs2.884 trillion in the first quarter, compared to Rs2.558tr collected during the same period last year. https://x.com/ProPakistaniPK/status/1972863358404542557?t=2N86HicgdIcr5ZBw7l9yog&s=19
Quarterly Target Analysis
While registering significant growth, the FBR fell short of its revenue collection target by Rs199 billion for the first quarter, missing the target of Rs3.083tr. The shortfall was most pronounced in September, when revenue collection reached Rs1.228tr, which was Rs155bn below the target of Rs1.384tr. Despite this, the September figure represented an 11pc increase from Rs1.105tr collected in September FY25.
Key Contributors to Shortfall
The shortfall is mainly due to lower domestic sales tax receipts and reduced revenue from utility bills. The decline in domestic sales tax is attributed to multiple factors, including a slowdown in business activity following widespread flooding and a drop in taxable utility consumption. Furthermore, the shift toward solar energy and ongoing power outages have also impacted tax collected through electricity and gas bills, contributing to slower sales tax growth.
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Segment-Specific Performance
Performance across the major tax segments for the July-September quarter (Q1) is as follows:
| Tax Head | Collection (Rs Trillion/Billion) | Target (Rs Trillion/Billion) | Shortfall/Surplus | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax | Rs1.363tr | Rs1.459tr | Missed by Rs96bn | 11% |
| Sales Tax | Rs1.019tr | Rs1.141tr | Missed by Rs122bn | 13% |
| Customs Duty | Rs312bn | Rs295bn | Surpassed by Rs17bn | 13% |
| Federal Excise Duty (FED) | Rs190bn | Rs188bn | Exceeded target | 26% |
Notably, Customs Duty and Federal Excise Duty (FED) surpassed their respective targets. FED collection specifically demonstrated strong performance, reaching Rs190bn and showing a substantial 26pc increase from Rs151bn last year. Total Refunds and rebates issued during the first quarter amounted to Rs157bn, compared to Rs147bn a year ago. The FBR has so far received around 4m income tax returns by the end of September.
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Strategy and Forward Outlook
The government has set the overall collection target for FY26 at Rs14.131tr. To meet commitments under the IMF programme, the government introduced revenue measures worth Rs1.05tr in the FY26 budget. These measures include Rs655bn in new taxes and Rs400bn through stricter enforcement. The budget strategy aims to broaden the tax base, ensure fair burden-sharing, and enforce compliance. Key initiatives encompass digital taxation, carbon levies, and expanded coverage of e-commerce and digital transactions to align with global standards. The FBR remains optimistic about recovering the shortfall in the coming months, expecting an additional Rs200bn in super tax next month, which could partially offset the current shortfall.
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