Reaffirming the ongoing stabilization of the country’s economy, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Iva Petrova is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on February 26, 2026. The almost two-week visit, concluding on March 11, will focus on a dual-track agenda: evaluating the end-December 2025 performance under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), while simultaneously laying the groundwork for the Fiscal Year 2026-27 National Budget.
The implementation of the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic report and the National Fiscal Pact will top the agenda of the upcoming International Monetary Fund review talks for the release of the next loan tranches worth $1.2 billion.
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— The Express Tribune (@etribune) February 18, 2026
Performance Review: Revenue shortfalls vs. Legal Victories
Pakistan’s performance for the July–December 2025 period has remained largely on track, though not without hurdles. While the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) faced an indicative revenue shortfall of approximately Rs 336 billion, government officials are optimistic. This deficit is expected to be mitigated by a recent landmark ruling from the Federal Constitutional Court, which upheld the Super Tax. The verdict is projected to unlock roughly Rs 300 billion in retroactive and current collections, significantly narrowing the fiscal gap just as the IMF mission begins its assessment.
The Power Sector and Circular Debt Scrutiny
Despite the relative stability of circular debt—which remains within the agreed target range—the power sector will face rigorous oversight. The IMF mission is expected to seek clarity on recent “volatile” policymaking, particularly regarding fixed charges for residential consumers and shifts in the industrial energy tariff structure. However, data indicates a positive trend, with the circular debt flow declining to Rs 75 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, aided by a Rs 200 billion government subsidy.
Quantitative Success and Structural Lags
Leading brokerage reports, including Topline Research, suggest that Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs). Notably, the Primary Surplus for December 2025 is estimated at Rs 4.1 trillion, far exceeding the floor target of Rs 3.2 trillion. Conversely, the mission will address lingering delays in indicative targets and structural benchmarks, such as the full implementation of the National Fiscal Pact and provincial delays in legislating a modernized Agricultural Income Tax.
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Tranches on the Horizon
The successful completion of this review will be a prerequisite for the IMF Executive Board’s approval in April. This would trigger the disbursement of approximately $1 billion under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF. These inflows are critical for maintaining the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, which are currently projected to strengthen toward a target of $17.8 billion by June 2026.
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