Senior Israeli defense officials have issued a formal warning to the Trump administration regarding recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile movements, cautioning that current military exercises in Iran may serve as a precursor or cover for a direct strike on Israel.
Following the identification of Iranian missile movements and operational shifts, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir held an urgent briefing with Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), on Saturday. During the call, Zamir emphasized that while current intelligence highlights force movements under the guise of an exercise, the IDF’s risk tolerance has reached a historic low in the post-October 7 security landscape.
⚡️ Israel warns US Iran may be readying STRIKE — Axios
‘IRGC missile exercise could be preparations for strike on Israel’
US intel: ‘NO indication an Iranian attack is imminent’
Bibi aiming to convince Trump to BOMB Iran AGAIN over ballistic missiles pic.twitter.com/O3WlDD9bPd
— RT (@RT_com) December 21, 2025
Adm. Cooper arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday for follow-up consultations with top IDF officials to synchronize defensive preparations and ensure immediate response readiness.
While U.S. intelligence currently indicates no signs of an imminent attack, Israeli sources estimate the probability of a strike at less than 50%. However, officials stressed that the risk of miscalculation remains high. “Nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” a senior Israeli source noted, citing the danger of either side preempting a perceived imminent threat.
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The warning comes as Israeli intelligence tracks signs of a renewed buildup in Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. Reports indicate:
- Current Inventory: Iran currently possesses approximately 1,500 missiles and 200 launchers.
- Depletion: This follows the 12-day conflict in June, which saw Iran’s pre-war stockpile of 3,000 missiles and 400 launchers reduced by half.
- Strategic Outlook: While the Mossad and military intelligence do not view the current pace of rebuilding as an immediate casus belli for the next 60-90 days, they warn that the issue will become critical later in 2026.
The security situation is expected to be a primary focus of the upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump, scheduled for December 29 in Miami. The Prime Minister is expected to seek alignment on Iran’s rebuilding efforts and discuss the necessity of potential military countermeasures in the coming year.
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