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Pentagon Draft Report Highlights Rapid Chinese Nuclear Expansion, and Regional Threats

Dec 25, 2025 | Latest News, Global Affairs









A draft of the annual Pentagon report on the military power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) reveals a significant acceleration in Beijing’s nuclear capabilities and a lack of interest in international arms control negotiations.

The report identifies that China has likely loaded more than 100 DF-31 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) into three new silo fields near the Mongolian border. Key findings regarding the PRC nuclear arsenal include:

  • Warhead Count: The current stockpile is estimated in the low 600s as of 2024.
  • Projections: China remains on track to exceed 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
  • Arms Control: Despite U.S. efforts to engage in a three-way strategic treaty with Russia and China, Beijing has shown “no appetite” for such measures.

The Department of Defense notes that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is refining options to seize Taiwan by “brute force.” The report specifies that the PLA expects to be capable of winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027. This includes the development of strike capabilities 1,500–2,000 nautical miles from China’s coast, specifically designed to disrupt U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

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The report also addresses the ongoing anti-corruption campaign led by President Xi Jinping. While recent purges of 26 top defense officials and managers have slowed procurement in the short term, the Pentagon assesses these moves may lead to “long-term PLA improvements overall.”

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