From Deterrence to Dominance: The 2025 Garrison Pivot and the Global Rise of Pakistani Defense

The year 2025 has emerged as a transformative epoch for the Pakistan Armed Forces, characterized by a rapid transition from traditional defensive posturing to a proactive, export-driven military strategy. At the heart of this evolution was a high-stakes kinetic engagement in May, which served as both a catalyst for structural reform and a real-world validation of the country’s indigenous and co-developed military technology. By the end of the year, Pakistan had not only secured its borders through the “88-Hour War” but had also repositioned itself as a major defense hub, signing record-breaking export deals and formalizing strategic defense pacts that have reshaped the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Middle East.

The 88-Hour War: Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos

The defining event of the year began on May 7, following weeks of heightened tension after the Pahalgam attack in late April. In response to India’s “Operation Sindoor”—which involved missile strikes across multiple Pakistani cities—the Pakistan Armed Forces launched Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos (meaning “a wall of solid lead”). This brief but exceptionally intense conflict was characterized by the largest air dogfight in modern history, involving over 125 aircraft and lasting over 60 minutes.

The engagement saw the successful deployment of Chinese-origin air defense systems and JF-17 Block III fighters, which reportedly downed several enemy aircraft, including advanced Rafale jets. The conflict also featured a significant cyber warfare component that disabled nearly 70% of the adversary’s Northern Power Grid and disrupted rail networks, proving that Pakistan’s military doctrine has evolved into a sophisticated, multi-domain framework. The hostilities concluded on May 10 with a US-brokered ceasefire, but the strategic equilibrium in the region was permanently altered.

Historic Elevation: Promotion to Field Marshal

In a move that signaled the state’s total confidence in its military leadership during the May crisis, the Federal Cabinet approved the promotion of General Syed Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal on May 20. This was the first such promotion in over 60 years, placing Munir in a category previously occupied only by Ayub Khan. The promotion was not merely a ceremonial gesture; it was a reward for his “courageous leadership and exceptional strategy” during what was termed Marka-e-Haq (The Battle of Truth). By elevating the Chief of Army Staff to a five-star rank, the government aimed to cement the military’s domestic authority and send a clear message to regional adversaries that the country’s leadership was unified and battle-hardened. Munir dedicated the honor to the martyrs and veterans, emphasizing that the victory was a collective achievement of the nation rather than an individual accolade.

Operation Azm-e-Istehkam: Ongoing Anti-Terrorism Efforts

While external threats dominated the early summer, the internal security landscape was defined by Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability). Launched in June 2024 and reaching a high intensity throughout 2025, this campaign represents a “re-energized” national counter-terrorism strategy. Unlike previous large-scale kinetic operations that led to mass displacements, Azm-e-Istehkam utilizes intelligence-based operations (IBOs) to surgically dismantle militant networks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The operation is multi-dimensional, combining military pressure with socio-economic uplift and legal reforms to target the financial and ideological roots of extremism. Significant successes were recorded in 2025, including the neutralization of high-value targets from the TTP and BLA, alongside a renewed focus on securing Chinese interests and CPEC projects under the new “Sino-Pak Joint Security” framework.

 The Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC)

Recognizing the pivotal role of stand-off precision strikes during the May conflict, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif officially inaugurated the Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC) on August 13. This new command was established to centralize and modernize the operation of conventional long-range missile and rocket systems, such as the Fatah-I, Fatah-II, and the newly tested Fatah-4 cruise missile. By separating conventional strike assets from the nuclear-focused Strategic Plans Division (SPD), the ARFC allows for a more flexible and rapid response to conventional threats. This organizational shift mirrors the “Rocket Force” structures of other major powers like China, highlighting Pakistan’s intent to dominate the regional conventional missile race. The ARFC is tasked with “targeting the enemy from every direction,” providing a layered deterrent that can be utilized without immediately escalating to a nuclear threshold.

Induction of Defence Equipment

I. J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” Induction and F-16 Upgrades

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) significantly bolstered its “high-low” mix with the continued induction of the J-10C (CE) fighter jets. By mid-2025, the Pentagon confirmed that Pakistan had operationalized at least two frontline squadrons of these 4.5-generation fighters, which played a decisive role during the 88-Hour War. Paired with the PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile, the J-10C has redefined the air dominance calculus along the Line of Control.

Simultaneously, in December 2025, the United States approved a $686 million upgrade package for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet. This deal ensures that the Block-52 and Mid-Life Upgrade (MLU) aircraft remain technologically relevant through 2040, providing advanced Link-16 tactical data links and mission-planning tools that allow the PAF to maintain interoperability with global partners while sustaining its most venerable fighter platform.

II. The Hangor-Class Submarines: Undersea Dominance

The Pakistan Navy achieved its most significant undersea milestone on December 17, 2025, with the launch of PNS Ghazi, the fourth and final Hangor-class submarine built in China. This $5 billion program for eight submarines represents a quantum leap in maritime deterrence. These vessels are equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology, allowing them to remain submerged for weeks, making them nearly impossible to detect. While the first four units are finishing sea trials in China, the remaining four are currently under construction at the Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KS&EW) under a Transfer of Technology (ToT) agreement. Once fully operational in 2026, these submarines will likely be armed with the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), providing Pakistan with a credible second-strike capability and a formidable A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) shield in the Arabian Sea.

Defence Pacts, and Military Exercises

I. Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement

September 15 saw a monumental shift in Middle Eastern security dynamics with the signing of the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Signed at Al Yamamah Palace in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the pact utilizes language similar to NATO’s Article 5, stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” This agreement formalizes decades of informal security cooperation and provides a legal framework for mutual assistance, which could include the deployment of Pakistani troops or air defense units to protect Saudi interests. For Pakistan, the SMDA offers a strategic “strategic depth” in the Middle East and ensures continued economic and energy security, while for Saudi Arabia, it provides access to the expertise and hardware of a battle-tested nuclear power.

 II. Azerbaijan JF-17 Block III Defense Deal

The industrial success of the JF-17 program reached its zenith on November 25, when Pakistan finalized its largest-ever defense export deal with Azerbaijan. Valued at over $1.6 billion (with some estimates reaching $4.6 billion when including long-term support and munitions), the agreement involves the supply of a fleet of JF-17 Block III fighters. These aircraft are equipped with advanced AESA radars and are capable of carrying sophisticated long-range missiles, offering Azerbaijan a significant technological leap over its current MiG-29 fleet. The deal is a major victory for the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra, proving that the JF-17 is a viable and “battle-proven” alternative to more expensive Western or Russian platforms. This agreement has not only boosted Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves but has also cemented a “brotherly” military-technical partnership between Islamabad and Baku.

In late December, reports emerged of another massive defense agreement, this time involving the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The $4.6 billion deal reportedly includes the sale of JF-17 fighter jets, Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, and various armored vehicles and naval assets. This deal represents a bold move into the North African defense market and highlights Pakistan’s willingness to engage with diverse regional actors to expand its economic footprint. Despite the complex political landscape in Libya, the agreement underscores the growing global demand for Pakistani-made equipment that is seen as robust, effective, and free from the restrictive political conditions often attached to Western arms sales.

IV. Sudan and Turkiye Strategic Collaborations

Throughout 2025, Pakistan continued to deepen its strategic collaborations with long-term partners Sudan and Turkiye. The partnership with Sudan focused on training programs and the supply of light arms to help the country stabilize its internal security. However, it was the collaboration with Turkiye that marked the most significant technological leap. In January, the two nations officially established a joint factory for the production of the KAAN 5th-generation fighter jet. This project allows Pakistan’s defense industry to move beyond 4th-generation technology, granting access to advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and electronic warfare capabilities. By participating in the KAAN project, Pakistan is ensuring that its Air Force remains technologically relevant well into the 2030s and 2040s, while simultaneously reducing its reliance on traditional suppliers.

 V. Naval Exercise AMAN-25 and Global Diplomacy

Earlier in the year, the Pakistan Navy hosted Naval Exercise AMAN-25 in February, bringing together 60 countries under the theme “Together for Peace.” The exercise, which took place in the Arabian Sea, served as a platform for maritime diplomacy and showcased Pakistan’s role as a key stakeholder in Indian Ocean security. The participation of major navies from the US, China, Turkiye, and Iran demonstrated Pakistan’s unique ability to bridge regional divides. The exercise included complex harbor and sea phases, focusing on anti-piracy, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian assistance. AMAN-25 not only improved interoperability between international navies but also highlighted the strategic importance of the Karachi port and the Gwadar corridor in global trade and energy security.

VI. Exercise AYYILDIZ 2025 and Special Operations

The year concluded with Exercise AYYILDIZ 2025, a high-intensity joint special operations drill between the Turkish SAT commandos and the Pakistan Navy SSGN (Special Service Group Navy). Conducted in Istanbul from December 15 to 26, the exercise focused on maritime counter-terrorism, Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) operations, and clandestine insertions. The drill utilized “mixed teams” of Turkish and Pakistani operators, forcing them to integrate their tactics and equipment in a high-stress environment. This exercise was a direct follow-up to the lessons learned during the 88-Hour War, where the need for rapid, elite maritime response units was highlighted. The success of AYYILDIZ 2025 further solidifies the elite bond between the two navies, ensuring they are prepared for hybrid threats in both the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea.

Conclusion: The “Garrison Pivot” and a New Strategic Doctrine

The military trajectory of Pakistan in 2025 represents a fundamental departure from the traditional “Security State” model toward what analysts are calling the “Garrison Pivot.” For decades, Pakistan’s defense posture was primarily reactive and focused on territorial integrity through conventional and nuclear deterrence. However, the events of 2025—spanning from the 88-Hour War to the multi-billion dollar export deals in Libya and Azerbaijan—suggest that the military has successfully monetized its “operational credibility” into a sustainable economic and diplomatic engine.

From Survival to Sustainability

The most significant shift this year is the transition of the military-industrial complex from a cost-center to a profit-generator. The $4.6 billion Libya deal and the $1.6 billion Azerbaijan contract have not only injected vital foreign exchange into a struggling economy but have also positioned Pakistan as a “Middle Power” arms exporter. By offering battle-proven, high-tech solutions like the JF-17 Block III—validated under the kinetic pressure of a nuclear-armed rival—Pakistan is filling a global vacuum for states seeking advanced military hardware without the political strings often attached to Western or Russian exports.

The New Architecture of Deterrence

The creation of the Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC) and the induction of Hangor-class submarines indicate a sophisticated layering of deterrence. Pakistan is moving away from a binary “conventional vs. nuclear” choice, instead developing a diverse toolkit that includes:

• Undersea Resilience: Ensuring a second-strike capability through AIP-equipped submarines.
• Precision Conventional Strike: Using the Fatah missile series to dominate the “gray zone” below the nuclear threshold.
• Technological Sovereignty: Bridging the gap to 5th-generation warfare through the KAAN project with Turkiye.

Geopolitical Realignment: The “Arab NATO” and Beyond

The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most consequential diplomatic achievement of the decade. By formalizing a “NATO-like” commitment, Pakistan has transitioned from a mercenary security provider to a core stakeholder in Gulf security. This pact, combined with the “Sino-Pak Joint Security” framework for CPEC, ensures that Pakistan’s security is now intrinsically linked to the economic and territorial interests of the world’s most powerful energy and industrial players.

You May Like To Read: The Year of the Pivot: Pakistan’s 2025 Journey from Survival to Strategic Resilience

Internal Stability through “Azm-e-Istehkam”

Domestically, the success of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam has demonstrated that the military has refined its counter-terrorism approach. By shifting from massive clearing operations to high-precision, intelligence-led strikes, the state has maintained internal security without the massive socio-economic displacement of the past. This internal calm, bolstered by the 27th Constitutional Amendment, has allowed the military to focus on its role as the “primary proponent of the state’s economic recovery.”

In summary, 2025 was the year Pakistan stopped merely defending its borders and started exporting its stability. The “88-Hour War” served as a brutal validator of Pakistan’s hardware and resolve, and the subsequent defense deals proved that the world was watching. As the nation enters 2026, it does so not just as a regional player, but as an emerging “Arsenal of the Global South,” leveraging its military prowess to secure a seat at the table of 21st-century power politics.

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