Syria Prepares for First Post-Assad Parliament Election

Syria is set to hold an indirect vote on Sunday to establish its first parliament since Bashar al-Assad was ousted. This marks a key step in the transition from his rule but has already stirred significant concerns about political inclusivity and centralization under the country’s new leaders, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

The process is unfolding as President Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda fighter whose rebel forces toppled Assad in December, attempts to consolidate his hold over a nation fractured by 14 years of war and recent bouts of sectarian violence. These factors have fueled suspicion of his Islamist-led administration among minorities.

The Indirect Electoral Process

The upcoming election is an indirect one, with regional electoral colleges—made up of a combined 6,000 electors—set to pick two-thirds of the 210-seat parliament. A committee appointed by Sharaa has already approved 1,570 candidates. President Sharaa will then select the remaining third of the seats.

Authorities stated that they resorted to this system, rather than universal suffrage, due to a lack of reliable population data and the displacement of millions of Syrians by the war.

Citing security and political reasons, the government also decided to postpone the process in the northeast, held by Kurdish-led authorities, and in the province of Sweida, largely held by Druze armed groups. Consequently, 19 seats in parliament are expected to be left empty.

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Critics Slam Unrepresentative Vote

Critics have sharply slammed these moves, arguing that a partial and indirect vote is inherently unrepresentative and too centrally managed.

The eastern city of Deir al-Zor provides a stark example of the division. The winding Euphrates river splits the city into a government-held western half where a vote will be held, and a Kurdish-controlled eastern bank with no election.

Hassan Mohamed Dalli, a resident of the eastern bank, expressed the public frustration, stating: “It does not satisfy me that there are elections there, and here there aren’t. We want something that serves the whole region. Syria is united.”

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Concerns Over Minority and Gender Representation

Critics also warn that the current process fails to guarantee the participation of women or religious and ethnic minorities, noting that no quotas have been set for these groups.

Analysis of the candidate pool reveals significant gaps in gender representation. Women make up at least 20% of candidates in just a quarter of electoral districts, but in half of the districts, 10% or fewer of the candidates are women. This situation is comparable to the Assad era, when female lawmakers made up only $6\%$ to $13\%$ of the legislature from $1981$ until his overthrow, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union.

Analysts suggest that the current winner-takes-all voting system could produce a result dominated by men from Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority.

Sharaa’s Appointee Power

The lack of inclusivity places the onus on President Sharaa, who has repeatedly promised inclusivity, to use his power to appoint the final one-third of seats to select female lawmakers and members of minority groups.

However, observers worry that he could also use his appointees to centralise power. Haid Haid, a senior fellow at the Arab Reform Initiative, wrote in an analysis of the process: “If the president selects individuals subject to his influence, he could issue laws through decrees without effective challenge.”

Haid concluded that this moment holds immense significance: “This moment could either legitimize a fragile transition or deepen long-standing public cynicism.”

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