In the current complex and volatile global landscape, Pakistan’s commitment to maintain credible minimum nuclear deterrence is imperative for its national security and regional stability. The investment in its strategic nuclear program is a fundamental, non-negotiable imperative, ensuring the nation’s sovereignty and safeguarding peace in a volatile region and hostile neighbourhood. Pakistan occupies a strategically pivotal position. The bordering countries have diverse geopolitical interests and a history of regional tensions. Accordingly, in this hostile environment, the concept of credible minimum deterrence is not a luxury but a strategic necessity.
Delineating Nuclear Deterrence and Credible Minimum Deterrence
The notions of credible minimum deterrence and nuclear deterrence are interconnected; however, they represent distinct concepts in the broader strategic security paradigm.
Nuclear Deterrence is a broad military strategy that aims to prevent enemies from attacking by threatening them with catastrophic consequences through the retaliatory potential and destructive force of the nuclear arsenal. The concept of nuclear deterrence is based on the belief that possession of nuclear weapons is a powerful deterrent against possible aggression, because the potential attackers must weigh the severe repercussions of an all-out nuclear conflict.
The potential attackers, or adversaries, under such circumstances, before initiating any attack, must necessarily weigh the pros, cons and possible outcomes of their actions; because if the attacked country conducts a nuclear-retaliatory strike, the consequences will be catastrophic for the attacker. Amidst the Cold War, this dynamic, stemming from nuclear deterrence, was called mutually assured destruction, since both stakeholders had enough nuclear weapons to destroy each other, which, as a result, significantly lowers the possibility of a first strike.
Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD) is a specific principle stemming from the broader framework of nuclear deterrence. It emphasises maintaining enough nuclear arsenal to ensure an assured second-strike capability, to prevent or deter an adversary from launching a first strike. This strategy also entails a first-use policy, which restricts the use of nuclear weapons only for retaliating against nuclear strikes. Notably, the concept of credible minimum deterrence, just like nuclear deterrence, is rooted in the capacity of assuring mutual destruction—i.e., of the attacker in case of nuclear strikes.
In a crux, all credible minimum deterrence is a form of nuclear deterrence; however, not all nuclear deterrence strategies are based on the principle of credible minimum deterrence. The CMD paradigm is a tailored approach for states with conventionally more equipped adversaries that aims to achieve deterrence effectively and efficiently.
Case Study of Pakistan
The policy and capability of credible minimum deterrence is a strategic imperative for Pakistan as it discourages the hostile nations, particularly India, from engaging in any misadventure and thus, ensuring the protection of national sovereignty, interest and maintenance of peace. Maintenance of credible minimum deterrence capabilities requires continuous funding and maintenance of a nuclear triad—i.e., land-based, cruise, and MIRV-capable missiles—and an effective command-and-control system, to safeguard sovereignty.
India has been a hostile nation to Pakistan because of the historical adversarial relations between the two countries. Pakistan, in purview of the volatile regional conditions, has been focused on modernising its military through the development of battlefield nuclear weapons. The goal is simple: to deter India and neutralise the numerical advantage they have. Although Pakistan, on numerous occasions, most recently during the 2025 conflict, has already demonstrated that India’s numerical superiority is no match for Pakistan’s military prowess.
The credible minimum deterrence capabilities rely heavily on the nuclear triad, as mentioned earlier. In this triad, the land-based arsenal that Pakistan possesses includes Shaheen, cruise missiles, Babur, and MIRV-capable systems like Ababeel. These strategic assets, safeguarding the sovereignty of the country, require meticulous maintenance and constant advancements.
To this effect, Pakistan has significantly increased its defence budget, effective from the fiscal year 2025. The budget for the fiscal year 2025-2026 ramped up defence spending to 2.55 trillion rupees (equivalent to $9bn), observing an increase of at least 20 per cent, from the previous defence allocations.
The decision to enhance the defence budget was not arbitrary, but rather backed by civil-military consensus, in the backdrop of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. The unstable, hostile and volatile regional security dynamics compelled Pakistan to pursue its credible minimum deterrence policies more rigorously.
Rising Defense Spending Amid Economic Weakness
Increased defence spending amid fragile economic conditions, and reliance on International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans raise concerns regarding austerity. However, it is imperative to understand that the decision to increase the military budget is a strategic move.
The nation, despite the uncomfortable economic realities, views defence spending as imperative for the protection of national integrity and the achievement of peace through strength. The contributions of Pakistani taxpayers to the defence forces are seen not just as a social responsibility but as a national duty, reflecting a deep-seated commitment to safeguarding lives and sovereignty.
Furthermore, economic security is intrinsically linked to a robust defence posture. Projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which involve critical trade routes, infrastructure, and energy corridors, require comprehensive security against threats posed by non-state and state actors. The protection of these vital economic arteries directly contributes to the nation’s economic stability and future prosperity.
Pakistan military’s professionalism and strategic orientation were demonstrated during the 2025 conflict with India, despite having a significantly smaller defence budget. This performance not only bolstered national confidence but also justified the nation’s investment in its military capabilities. The 20 per cent increase in budget echoes the state’s responsibility to protect its citizens, sovereignty, and peace in the region.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s nuclear program and the sustained investment it demands are indispensable for its national security. This commitment ensures the nation’s ability to deter aggression, protect its sovereignty, and contribute to regional stability. The cost of maintaining this credible minimum deterrence is a non-negotiable investment in Pakistan’s future, safeguarding its people, its territory, and its aspirations for peace and prosperity.
