While Europe is currently equipped to navigate the spring season, energy experts warn of a looming scarcity if the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict persists into the summer. According to a March 26, 2026 report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF), the continent’s immediate stability is anchored by a significant shift in its energy mix. Europe has successfully reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas from 40% in 2022 to approximately 6% today, pivoting instead toward U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and domestic renewables.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said that Europe could face fuel supply shortages as soon as April, if the war continues.
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Despite this diversification, the war has triggered a 30% spike in EU natural gas prices following attacks on Iran’s South Pars field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan. The situation is particularly critical for Italy, which relies on LNG for 50% of its electricity generation. As the “summer driving season” approaches, Shell CEO Wael Sawan warns that the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for 20% of global flows—will soon lead to shortages in jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline across Europe.
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