The Indus Water Treaty brokered by World Bank in 1960 is one of the most durable frameworks between India and Pakistan which has functioned through wars, military hostilities, and eras of political tensions. As per the Indus Water Treaty the Eastern Rivers were allocated to India meanwhile the Western Rivers were allocated to Pakistan. After the occurrence of Pahalgam incident on April 23, 2025 India put the treaty “in abeyance,” linking the terrorist attack with Pakistan. However, no shred of evidence was provided by India, neither an independent inquiry was conducted despite the fact it was suggested by Pakistan multiple times.

India’s decision to unilaterally suspend the treaty departs from the practice of maintaining water cooperation despite security disputes. India cannot immediately stop the flow of western rivers to Pakistan, but it can suspend the sharing the hydrological data. The data is used for flood warning, irrigation planning, and so forth. India is coupling IWT cooperation with political demands while accelerating the construction of upstream infrastructure. Although Pakistan’s water crisis is a lingering one, nevertheless, the abeyance of IWT has added an additional pressure on Pakistan while exposing its fragile system to strategic risks.

Waters: The Cradle of Civilizations

Waters have historically been a cradle for ancient civilizations. The Indus Valley Civilization (c. 3300–1300 BCE) settled along the Indus and the Ghaggar-Haka Rivers, they even developed a sophistical, indigenous canal irrigation and drainage system. Mesopotamia, which literally means, “Land Between Rivers,” settled between the two Rivers i.e., Euphrates and Tigris. Ancient Egyptian Civilization flourished along the River Nile and would later be known as “the gift of the Nile” in the words of ancient historian Herodotus. Similarly, the Chinese Civilization flourished along the Yellow River and Yangtze River.

The above discussion makes it evident that the relation between waters and civilizations is very deep, the latter depends on the former. Contemporarily, half of the world’s population lives in 3 kilometers of freshwater bodies, meanwhile, rest lives within 50 kilometers. As per a report from UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 70% of the global freshwater is utilized for the agriculture sector, globally.

Agrarian economic, like Pakistan, rely predominantly on river-fed irrigation networks to sustain agricultural output. Therefore, the adverse implications of IWT’s abeyance on Pakistan’s agriculture sectors, and water management systems becomes clearer.

 How Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector and Water Management Suffer?

Pakistan, an Agrarian economy, relies predominantly on the Indus System for food production, rural livelihood, and economic activity. Statistically speaking, 80% of cultivated land in Pakistan relies on Western Rivers so does 90% of the national food production. The reliance on the western waters is heavy, under such circumstances a downstream state like Pakistan has alternative source of water that is comparable, or remotely close, to the Indus.

The water management systems of Pakistan also suffer due to the abeyance of IWT. The suspension of hydrological data—river discharge, reservoir levels and flood warnings—sharing has impaired the ability of Pakistan’s institutions to plan irrigation releases, prepare for floods, and deal with the depleting water reservoir. The water managers depend on satellite-based information, that has an error margin of 25%, the risks in the water management increase. Correspondingly, the livelihood of 37% of labour force and two-thirds of the rural population depending on agriculture becomes vulnerable.

In simple words it could burden the small farmers, low-income households, fishing community, and individuals associated with the Indus basin for sustenance—which is approximately 300 million people. The vulnerability to climate change makes this predicament more acute. As the melting glaciers, cloud bursts, and erratic river flows already cause considerable damage.

Pakistan and India’s Legal and Diplomatic Position

Islamabad’s diplomatic and legal position is straightforward; it rests its case on the following arguments;

• Indus Water Treaty has no provision allowing unliteral suspension or abeyance.
• Treaty can only be modified or terminated through a duly ratified agreement between both stakeholders i.e., Pakistan and India.
• India’s grounds are inadequate to be a fundamental change of circumstances under international treaty law.

New Delhi, on the other hand, blames Pakistan for cross-border terrorism, and argues that demographic changes, and growing energy and irrigation needs justify reassessment of the treaty. Whereas, India has accelerated the construction of hydropower and canal projects on the western rivers, including the Chenab. Perhaps as an effort to expand its control over the shared rivers. Keep in mind the Indus Water Treaty exclusively allocated the Western Rivers to Pakistan.

Permanent Court of Arbitration’s Ruling

The ruling rendered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration is composed of two parts:

1. Status of the Indus Water Treaty

The court ruled: First, India’s decision to unilaterally put the treaty in abeyance is not permissible as per the provisions of the treaty, or the international law. Second, India has no legal authority or justification or terminate or suspend the agreement. Third, New-Delhi is bound to fulfil its obligations under the treaty.

2. Interim Measures

Arbitration Court agreeing with Pakistan prohibited India from constructing/concreting the dam wall and power intake structure above specified levels. The restriction will remain in play for 90 days after the decision meanwhile, a team of Neutral Experts, appointed by the World Bank, will provide the final decisions, expectedly by July 2027. Finally, India will be mandatorily report regarding the construction schedule.

Policy Recommendations

• Accelerate & Diversify Strategic Storage
  • Prioritize funding and construction timelines for key mega-projects like the Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand dams to extend national storage beyond the current, 30-day capacity.
  • Build check dams, rainwater harvesting networks, and localized storage basins in rural areas to absorb supply shocks without sole reliance on multi-year megaprojects.
• Deploy an Autonomous Telemetry & Data Infrastructure
  • Install high-precision, automated real-time water flow sensors along the Indus Basin System to eliminate reliance on Indian data-sharing.
  • Leverage indigenous satellite monitoring, hydrometeorological radar, and AI-driven predictive modeling to establish independent flood, drought, and flow forecasting capabilities.
• Institutionalize Unified Water Governance
  • Strengthen the National Water Council (NWC) or establish a unified executive authority to oversee cross-provincial water allocation, strategic planning, and crisis management.
  • Enforce transparent implementation of the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord using real-time telemetry data to reduce inter-provincial trust deficits and streamline regional planning.
• Overhaul Irrigation & Conveyance Efficiency
  • Modernize canal networks, lining primary and secondary canals to curb the ~40% conveyance loss caused by seepage and evaporation.
  • Incentivize farm-level adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation, laser land leveling, and crop-switching toward less water-intensive agriculture to maximize crop yield per drop.

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty was built on the fundamental premise that shared natural resources should remain insulated from geopolitical hostilities. India’s decision to unilaterally place the treaty in abeyance—coupled with the withholding of critical hydrological data—marks a dangerous departure from six decades of functional transboundary management. While the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s binding ruling offers Islamabad a vital legal victory by reaffirming the treaty’s full validity and restricting unauthorized upstream construction, legal judgments alone cannot shield Pakistan from its acute hydro-vulnerabilities.

Water in the Indus Basin is more than a natural resource; it is the economic lifeline sustaining over 300 million people, driving 90% of national food production, and underpinning regional stability. As climate change accelerates glacier melt and unpredictable flow patterns, weaponizing water data directly jeopardizes downstream food security and flood safety. To effectively navigate this double-edged threat—external strategic pressure on one side and internal management deficiencies on the other—Pakistan must pursue a dual-track strategy. Externally, it must continue leveraging international law to hold India accountable to its treaty obligations. Internally, Islamabad must urgently implement structural water governance reforms, modernize irrigation infrastructure, and establish autonomous data-monitoring networks. Only by transforming domestic vulnerabilities into climate resilience can Pakistan safeguard its agricultural backbone and secure its hydro-sovereignty for generations to come.