Geopolitical Tensions Escalate as US Signals Shift to ‘War to Win’ Amid Hybrid Threats

A recent series of coordinated military exercises and provocative incursions by both NATO adversaries has highlighted a dangerous inflection point in global security strategy. Despite deliberate, high-profile shows of force by the Pentagon, analysts suggest this strategy of deterrence may be yielding diminishing effects, particularly as Russian and Chinese actors intensify their use of so-called hybrid tactics just short of open conflict.

Strategic Demonstrations in the Arctic and Pacific

The United States recently showcased its long-range strike capability six days prior to a Russian incursion into NATO airspace. A U.S. B-2 stealth bomber flew across the North Atlantic and sank a target ship as part of military drills, escorted by Norwegian F-35 stealth jets. This demonstration, which took place in “the Kremlin’s backyard” where the Atlantic meets the Arctic—and coincided with exercises involving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier—mirrored a 2024 exercise where the US Navy employed precision laser-guided bombs against the former U.S. Navy assault ship Tarawa, a move widely interpreted as a warning to Beijing regarding potential conflict over Taiwan.

These actions are intended to showcase U.S. military might and reassure allies. However, simultaneous actions by Moscow and Beijing are challenging this narrative.

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The Hybrid Challenge to NATO’s Defense

Russia has intensified its use of hybrid tactics, culminating in the unauthorized entry of drones into Polish airspace on September 9, followed by jets entering Estonian airspace a few days later. These events have left the NATO alliance “battling suggestions that it lacks both the will and resources to keep Europe properly defended.”

The threat is compounded by the appearance of multiple unidentified drones over multiple airports and other locations in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and beyond.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen addressed the escalating challenge at an EU leaders’ gathering in Copenhagen, defining the adversary’s strategy: “The idea of a hybrid war is to threaten us, to divide us, to destabilise us.” She noted that incidents like drone incursions, cyberattacks, and sabotage could not be stopped simply by preparing for a major war.

In response to the Polish incursion, NATO swiftly announced a stepped-up air defence mission known as “EASTERN SENTRY.” However, subsequent disagreements within the alliance over whether a tougher line was needed during the Estonian incident have risked becoming a sign that “NATO isn’t working properly,” according to academic Sten Rynning.

The U.S. Pivot to the ‘Department for War’

Adding complexity to the geopolitical landscape, U.S. defense policy is undergoing a dramatic shift. This week, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, rebranded as “Secretary for War,” and President Donald Trump addressed top military commanders in Quantico, Virginia, declaring that the Pentagon, now the “Department for War,” will be focused ruthlessly on being prepared to fight and win.

Hegseth argued that the new military leadership had learned the lessons of America’s unsuccessful “forever wars,” stating, “We fight wars to win, not to defend… Defence is something you do all the time. It’s inherently reactionary and can lead to overuse, overreach and mission creep. War is something to do sparingly on our own terms and with clear aims… We unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy.”

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Deepening Allied Jitters

Amid these policy shifts, most major U.S. allies are stepping up their own preparations for major warfare, yet significant jitters remain. The White House dressing-down of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier this year has caused deep concern among allies, who now worry they might find themselves similarly treated in a crisis.

These concerns are amplified by the delayed publication of a major Pentagon posture review, widely reported to prioritize homeland defense and confronting China, but lacking official clarity on its global implications.

China’s Parallel Intimidation Campaign

In the Pacific, China is executing a parallel campaign of intimidation, continually stepping up military operations around Taiwan and disputed waters. This month, Beijing declared the disputed Scarborough Shoal to be a Chinese “nature reserve,” ignoring a U.S.-backed United Nations maritime court ruling.

Regionally, there is acute worry that a potential U.S.-Chinese deal on trade and resources might give Beijing the impression it has a free hand to ramp up such efforts at intimidation, provided it remains short of all-out war. A preliminary classified Pentagon policy summary described deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as the top U.S. concern.

Ultimately, the challenge for NATO and its allies remains that adversaries are working to achieve their ends through means just short of conflict, forcing Western nations to adapt to a reality where the greatest threat may be less a major war and more persistent, destabilizing hybrid actions.

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